AoT Top Pick Weekly Update 2025

Hi folks,

I'm sure many of you are familiar with the Art of Trading "Top Pick of the Week" Strategy. I thought this strategy up in mid 2021 and decided to put it into practice in 2022. Since then the strategy has become VERY popular with Art of Trading members!

We've covered the Top Pick of the Week extensively on the Art of Trading blog since its inception. Basically the strategy uses a fixed $10,000 position size each week. A "Top Pick", which is sent to Art of Trading members Sunday evening is then simply bought on the Monday morning open and then simply sold on the Friday afternoon close. The position size stays fixed ($10,000) each week. Very simple and straight forward!

I developed the strategy for those that have professional lives and full time obligations outside of the market and can't always be around screens to trade. It provides a way to be involved in the market with very little effort!

Since I've made this strategy live the Top Pick of the Week returned:

• +115.74% in 2022 [Full review]

• +131.86% in 2023 [Full review]

• +37.46% in 2024 [Full review]

A full analysis on the strategy since inception can be found [here]

At the end of each week I update the Top Pick of the Week blog post with the results so its easy to follow along and adds transparency!

Below are the live stats for 2025 (1 week lag)! Be sure to check this post each Sunday evening for a new update for the previous week!

***A small modification to the strategy might be warranted in the case of overbought and oversold levels in the market. Occasionally the market will reach these conditions and it may make sense to hold off on the "Top Pick" when these conditions are met. The chances of the market making a sharp countertrend move during these times is heightened. These conditions are rarely met so it doesn't change the overall strategy in a major way.

2025 Live Stats:

*Based on a $10k position

Percent Gain after Week 20: - 11.22%

  Profit / Loss after Week 20: - $1122

Week 18 - 20 update here (click)

• Week 1, 2, & 3 Top Pick: $AVGO

*** NOTE for Week 1 - 3:

Due to market volatility and market holidays week over week $AVGO was held for 3 weeks in a row. Starting Monday, January 6th and sold Friday, January 24th

$AVGO: (long setup) forming a clean looking wedging pattern after the recent Power Earnings Gap. The stock continues to exhibit relative strength characteristics in a volatile market, setting this up for a strong Top Pick of the Week to start 2025!

Target: $250 to $270

$AVGO opened strong with the market on January 6th but quickly faded over the coming days finding strong support on $220. From there the stock was a relative strength leader for nearly a 2 week period there after. This was the primary reason we continued to hold the setup over a 3 week period.

$AVGO traded up +3.47% over the past 3 weeks giving the Top Pick of the Week portfolio a strong start to 2025!

• Week 4 Top Pick: $TQQQ

*** NOTE:

The Top Pick was sold Friday morning at $TQQQ $85.30 to book the gain and start the Top Pick of the Week strategy off strong out of week 4 of the year.

$TQQQ: (long setup) A big gap down this morning will help set the market up for a potential bounce going into a big earnings week!

Target: $85 to $87

$TQQQ with a large gap down to start Monday morning. It quickly gained strength and traded higher Monday all the way through into Friday. We took advantage of the strength and booked the gain earlier Friday morning.

$TQQQ traded up +9.95% on the week giving the Top Pick of the Week portfolio a very strong start to 2025!

• Week 5 Top Pick: $IBM

*** NOTE:

The Top Pick was taken on the Tuesday February 4th open and sold on the Friday close.

$IBM: (long setup) Made a very nice PEG candle last week and Lovely INSIDE DAY candle on Friday. Upside follow-thru today. 

Target: $280

$IBM was strong through Tuesday and early Wednesday. $IBM drifted lower with the market Thursday through Friday, closing the Top Pick out with a minor loss on the week.

$IBM traded down -2.95% on the week. The Top Pick of the Week portfolio closes out +10.47% YTD.

• Week 6 Top Pick: $FTNT

$FTNT: (long setup) Recently broke out of a long drawn out consolidation pattern. Now starting a momentum run up. Looking for more momentum higher out of this move. 

Target: $120 to $125

$FTNT started the week by trading sideways Monday and Tuesday. Wednesday we witnessed a gap down with intraday weakness that was bought into the close forming a mini hammer candle on the daily chart. Thursday and Friday saw a momentum push higher. Closing near highs for the week!

$FTNT traded up +2.76% on the week basically erasing last weeks loss and closing the Top Pick strategy out at +13.23% YTD.

• Week 7 - 8 Top Pick: $CLS

*** NOTE:

$CLS was held from weeks 7 into 8. The position was stopped out on the Monday of the second week taking out the max drawdown threshold on the Top Pick Strategy.

$CLS: (long setup) A lovely bullish flag consolidation pattern here after a strong post-PEG momentum run up. Looking for more momentum higher out of this bullish flag. 

Target: $150

$CLS was not spared in any part of the market pullback over the past 2 weeks. It traded down with the market in uniform, following many names lower.

$CLS traded down -15.84% From week 7 into day 1 of week82. The Top Pick of the Week portfolio closes out -2.61% YTD.

• Week 9 - 10 Top Pick: $SOXL

*** NOTE:

$SOXL was taken on the Thursday morning of Week 8. Feb 27th, 2025. The position was stopped out on March 3rd at $21.

$SOXL: (long setup) $SMH, $SOXL pulled back into a level of solid support. With NVDA's blockbuster earnings report, I think we're gonna a catalyst for some big bounces in this sector and technology sector in general. 

Target: $30 to $32

$SOXL Market headlines and tariff news continued to push markets lower even after showing signs of promising daily strength. I sent a note to AoT members regarding the Top Pick strategy and our short term swing trading strategies on March 3rd.

"If $SOXL hits that $21 max loss stop, I will be shifting strategies regarding this market going forward. Will be using much more Shorting strategies and focusing more on 'Hit and Run' strategies(i.e. shorter holding periods, 1 to 3 days on Long and Short side). 

This means that we'll be less active(doing more waiting on sidelines) and when trades are put on, they'll be removed relatively quickly. This will also be the case for the AOT Top Pick strategy."

$SOXL traded down -21.58% Hitting the max risk on the position and stopping out. The Top Pick of the Week portfolio closes out -24.19% YTD.

• Week 11 Top Pick: $GS

*** NOTE:

The Top Pick taken on the Tuesday open and sold around 10:45AM on the Wednesday. The recent drawdown on the Top Pick strategy is going to take some work to recover so the strategy will remain as defensive as possible until ground is made back up.

$GS: (long setup) Note how the RSI is starting to break below the "extreme oversold" sub 30 line. It's very rare to see a stock like Goldman Sachs($GS) break below the RSI 30 line. The majority of the time, sub 30 dips in the 30s have been excellent buying opportunities especially after a 23% pullback in less than 3 weeks. 

Target: $575 to $600

$GS chopped and churned with the market last week. Not delivering a confident looking reversal signal through out the week. Friday the stock did make some progress but we had sold the position earlier in the week to protect from further weakness.

$GS traded up +0.66% from the entry Tuesday morning into the a early $536 exit on Wednesday.

• Week 12 Top Pick: $PLTR & $APP (half sized positions)

*** NOTE for Week 11: I opted to select two Top Picks for week 11. These were two positions split into half sized positions.

$PLTR: (long setup) Another former big winner that pulled back about 40% from highs! A good risk to reward entry here for a bounce phase. 

Target: $100

$PLTR open strong Monday but faded into Tuesday. Tuesday marked the low for the week and $PLTR traded higher into Friday. Trying to methodically claw back some losses in the Top Pick strategy I opted to take a defensive approach and close the position on Thursday at $87.30.

$APP: (long setup) huge PEG candle recently. A very nice 55% pullback from recent highs. Look for a bounce phase this week. The company management announced a huge share buy-back recently which is very interesting given how much the stock ran up in the last year.  

Target: $350 to $360

$APP traded nearly the same as $PLTR with Tuesday marking the low for the week. Wednesday through Friday $APP rallied higher. I closed $APP out on Thursday at $305.50.

$PLTR & $APP closed the week higher with a combined gain of with a +1.31%.

• Week 13 - 14 Top Pick: $DOCS

*** NOTE:

$DOCS was taken on the open of Tuesday March 25th. The position was stopped out on April 2nd at $56.

$DOCS: (long setup) Made a very nice PEG candle a few weeks ago and pulled back in a rather constructive manner to test the 50 day MA. A bottoming pattern emerged late last week with follow-thru today on increasing volume. Look for more upside traction this week. 

Target: $75 to $80

$DOCS Market headlines and tariff news continued to push markets lower with accelerated selling and fear. Although the loss was tough to swallow it could have been much bigger as $DOCS closed down an additional 10% from the stop on the week.

$DOCS traded down -16.36% Hitting the max risk on the position and stopping out.

• Week 15 Top Pick: $TQQQ

*** NOTE:

The Top Pick was a hit and run style trade to take advantage of the large gap down on Monday morning. The position was taken at $36.75 and sold into strength at $42 Monday April 7th. This was a half size position netting a +7.15% gain on the strategy.

$TQQQ: (long setup) NYMO/NAMO are finally getting into 'oversold' territory with today's big gap down open to begin the new week. This will be sized at half!

Target: $45

$TQQQ with a large gap down to start Monday morning. It quickly gained strength and traded higher. Taking volatility into consideration the position was sold into strength about 90 minutes after the open at $42 for a quick +14.29% move translating into a  +7.15% gain for the top pick strategy (Half size position)

$TQQQ traded up +7.15% on the day from entry $36.75 entry into $42 closing of the position on Monday.

• Week 16 - 17 Top Pick: $MSTR

*** NOTE:

The Top Pick was taken on the Monday April 14th and sold in two parts on week 2.

The first exit was on Tuesday April 22nd. @ $338

The second exit was on Wednesday April 23rd. @353

$MSTR: (long setup) Setting up nicely here. Despite the insanely volatile action last few days, the stock actually managed to carve out a Higher Low after the early March 'Tweezer bottom' candle formation versus the US indices which went on to basically crash since then. That's a notable Relative Strength Leader. Looking for more upside traction in the next few days/weeks. 

Target: $340 and then $400

$MSTR coiled flat within a $16 trading range through week 1. From contraction comes expansion and on week 2 the trade exploded higher. A full review of the entire trade can be found here: Anticipating A Breakout: $MSTR

$MSTR From the $309.80 entry and the two exits of $338 and $353 this trade produced a +11.52% gain in 8 trading days. Good for any market but exceptional in an environment like this!

• Week 18 - 20 Top Pick: $GBTC

*** NOTE:

The Top Pick was taken on the Monday April 28th and sold on the Friday of Week 3 May 16.

The position was held for 3 weeks.

$GBTC: (long setup) Weekly charts looking especially nice here and showing a good deal of resilience. 

Target: $85

$GBTC was a slow grind higher from the initial entry on April 28th. The position continued to show resilience over a 3 weeks span. We followed the relative strength move through out.

$GBTC produced a +9.35% gain in the 3 week period that it was held. Clawing back some losses from earlier in the year.

Stay tuned for weekly updates!

Cheers and happy Trading!