AOT TOP PICKS WEEKLY UPDATE 2023
Updated: 6 days ago
Hi folks,
Each weekend I send AoT private members a new "Stocks to Watchlist" for the upcoming week. These watchlists contain a "Top Pick of the Week". I'll update this post at the end of each week "live" tracking these picks publicly (It will lag 1 week)
In 2022 I developed a very simple strategy for the "Top Pick of the Week". This strategy returned +115.74% for 2022!!! Basically it involves buying the "Top Pick of the Week" on the opening tick Monday morning and selling the closing tick Friday afternoon. It takes very little effort and very little capital. The model portfolio uses $10k for this idea.
This is how the strategy worked compared to the market in 2022:
AoT Top Pick returned: +115.74%
SPY returned: -18.62%
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Below are the live stats (1 week lag) for 2023! Be sure to check this post each Sunday evening for a new update for the previous week!
***A small modification to the strategy might be warranted in the case of overbought and oversold levels in the market. Occasionally the market will reach these conditions and it may make sense to hold off on the "Top Pick" when these conditions are met. The chances of the market making a sharp countertrend move during these times is heightened. These conditions are rarely met so it doesn't change the overall strategy in a major way. See the Note* on week 3 for more insight into this! ***
2023 Live Stats:
*Based on a $10k position
Percent Gain after Week 38: + 101.41%
Profit / Loss after Week 38: + $10141
Week 1 Top Pick: $AEHR
(Long setup) This Semiconductor stock has been a relative strength leader throughout 2022. Pulling back to test 100 day MA. Look for a rally phase.
*Please note $AEHR was expected to post earnings last week. AoT members were given a 2nd option "$MOMO" if they didn't want ER risk! $MOMO as the secondary pick went on to return +4.80% or +$480.00 for the week!
Week 2 Top Pick: $SMCI
(long setup) This stock has been a relative strength leader throughout 2022. Pulling back to test 50 day MA. Look for a rally phase.
Targets: $95 to $100
$SMCI started off very strong for the week making a technical breakout. Tuesday morning $SMCI was stuck with a bearish hit piece published by Spruce Point Capital. The stock traded down on the article but recovered decently into weekend! Its unfortunate but sometimes these things happen!
Week 3 Top Pick: $PDSB
$PDSB: (long setup) This biotech stock has been a relative strength leader. Pulling back to test 20 day MA and forming a wedge pattern. Look for a big reversal/bounce this week.
Targets: $13 to $14
Coming into week 3 the market was performing quite well with a multi-day rally pushing $NYMO and $NAMO into overbought condition. I suspected the market might pullback but since I wasn't looking for a full blown bearish attack but more of a choppy/sideways to slightly down move for indices, I figured a biotech stock would more likely outperform since biotechs tend to outperform during choppy or slightly red Market periods. That's why I opted for $PDSB for this week. I didn't want to post short setups since I wasn't suspecting the market to drop all week. Looking back on the week, that turned out mostly accurate but the AOT Top Pick didn't perform as expected.
Week 4 Top Pick: $AMD
$AMD: (long setup) a beautiful bottoming pattern that's retesting the breakout area. Semis are starting to look a more better recently and AMD is one of the sector's best.
Targets: $80 to $85
$AMD started the week quite strong and surprisingly held in after being downgraded Tuesday morning and then weaker than expected earnings from $INTC. $AMD really showed its strength in the market this week!
Week 5 Top Pick: $OKTA
$OKTA: (long setup) a bullish wedge pattern here after a recent PEG. Look for a potential R2G(Red open that goes Green).
Targets: $85 to $90
Coming into week 5 it was an event filled week with FOMC and earnings reports from $AMD, $AAPL, $AMZN, $GOOGL and many more. Despite the potential for the market to whipsaw up down on a week like this strong stocks held in relatively well. $OKTA produced a 4.69% return for week 5!
Week 6 Top Pick: $SARK
$SARK: (long setup) the risk to reward profile is starting to look quite appealing here for a multi-day bounce in the inverse-$ARKK ETF.
Target: $45
After a very strong January and a quick run up in many of the top $ARKK holdings I was looking for a potential pullback / resting phase in some of these names this week. This was my main reason behind making $SARK the top pick for week 6. After a strong start to the week strength faded into weakness benefiting $SARK! $SARK produced a 7.39% return for week 6!
Week 7 Top Pick: $YPF
$YPF: (long setup) a bullish pennant consolidation pattern here after a pullback to the 20 day MA. Look for more relative strength leadership in this name in the next few days.
Target: $13 to $14
I expected some volatility this week so I went with a name with a little less beta attached to it. This setup had a nicely drawn out bullish pennant technical pattern that was set to break out. Technically it did break out Thursday with a high of $12.59 at one point but weakness hit the market into weeks end. This setup closed down the week -2.89% from the opening price Monday. From a swing trading point of view this setup is still technically valid.
Week 8 Top Pick: $RVNC
$RVNC: (long setup) relative strength leader from biotech sector. Pulled back to test 20 day MA. First 20 day MA test since the big gap up on January 9th. Held up last week as market fell.
Target: $36 to $38
Much the same as last week I expected some volatility this week so I went with a name with a little less beta attached to it. This setup had a nice controlled pullback from recent highs and was testing the 20 day MA trendline for the first time since it gapped up on January 9th.
This past week it continued to follow the 20 day MA trend in a bullish manner and returned +2.46% for the week while the market fell!
Next week I'm seeing many low risk, high reward entry points! Stay tuned!
Week 9 Top Pick: $META
$META: (long setup) has been pulling back nicely after recent PEG. Looking for a potential reversal/bounce this week.
Target: $200
$META made a very nice controlled pullback into the 20 MA and created a nice falling wedge pattern after a strong Power Earnings Gap. After last weeks pullback in the market I was looking for low risk, high reward trade setups and $META fit that profile!
$META returned +7.78% on the week!
Week 10 Top Pick: $TSLA
$TSLA: (long setup) first pullback/consolidation to the 20 day MA after the recent PEG. Look for continued strength/rotation this week.
Target: $220 - $230
$TSLA The idea behind the $TSLA trade was much the same as the previous weeks $META trade. Unfortunately $TSLA along with the market was quite weak for the majority of the week. Thursday amplifying the move down! Unfortunately sometimes this happens with a systematic approach.
Week 11 Top Pick: $AMD
$AMD: (long setup) a bullish consolidation recently here above the 20 day MA in a stock that's been an excellent relative strength leader in the Semis sector.
Target: $100
Coming into week 11 I opted to wait for the market to show a clearer path forward. The "Top Pick of the Week" was sent to AoT members on Tuesday evening instead of the usual Sunday evening "Stocks to Watchlist" for this reason. Given how last week ended on weakness I thought this was an important step for success stepping into this week!
On Wednesday morning $AMD opened at $86.74, as per the strategy this was the ideal entry. Finishing the week off strong at $97.84 with a 12.80% gain!!! Erasing the loss from last week and allowing the "Top Pick of the Week" to continue to outperform $SPY YTD!
Week 12 Top Pick: $AGI
$AGI: (long setup) a big volume bullish breakout on Friday to launch it near new 52 week highs for this gold sector stock. Rotation into gold as banking sector anxiety causes a flight to safety.
Target: $13 - $14
After last weeks very successful "Top Pick" idea my focus this week was to retain those gains and pick a strong name in a leading sector with a lot less beta attached to it. $AGI was trading near 52 week highs on strong momentum from the previous week. I thought this would be a strong idea in a market with a lot of uncertainty attached to it. Add the FOMC into the mix this week and stronger volatility should have been expected.
$AGI squeezed out a +3% gain on the week, pushing the "Top Pick of the Week" portfolio higher for the year. Now sitting at +17.71% gains YTD!
Week 13 Top Pick: $AXON
$AXON: (long setup) made a nice PEG candle recently. Pulling back to test 20 day MA after a strong run up and made an INSIDE DAY candle on Friday.
Target: $230
$AXON was an A+ setup coming into week 13. As good as the technical setup was this stock tested traders patience all through the week until it finally made its technical move on the last day, Friday!
Its important to keep in mind that this can happen from time to time and the best way to get through that is responsible position sizing. Keeping consistent sizing is key and this is exactly how the "Top Pick of the Week" systematic strategy works!
$AXON returned +2.79% on the week pushing the AoT Top Pick of the week strategy +20.50% YTD for 2023!
Week 14 Top Pick: $TSLA
$TSLA: (long setup) Pulled back to test 20 day MA after a strong run up and after repeated attempts to break below, it couldn't do it, a failed short setup often times make a good long setup.
Target: $225 - $230
The idea behind the $TSLA trade was a potential continuation breakout move off of the strong Friday close from the previous week. The gap down open Monday morning set the risk vs reward up quite nicely. Unfortunately $TSLA was quite weak for the majority of the week. It didn't help that the market was quite erratic and choppy on the short holiday week. Better setups to come in the future!
Week 15 Top Pick: $ONON
$ONON: (long setup) a very constructive post-PEG consolidation(bullish pennant) and a reversal took place today. Look for more upside this week as institutional interest in the stock grows.
Target: $35 - $40
Coming into week 15 I opted to wait for the market to show a clearer path forward. The "Top Pick of the Week" was sent to AoT members on Monday evening instead of the usual Sunday evening "Stocks to Watchlist" for this reason. Given how last week was quite choppy I thought it was best to see how the market acted Monday rather then just jump right in first thing Monday morning.
On Tuesday morning $ONON opened at $30.05, as per the strategy this was the ideal entry. Finishing the week off strong at $30.71 with a 2.20% gain!
Week 16 Top Pick: $IOT
$IOT: (long setup) a very constructive post-PEG consolidation and riding along the 20 day MA. Look for more upside this week.
Target: $25
Going into week 16 I was focusing on momentum breakout names that have shown leading characteristics in these choppy market conditions. Potential ideas that could show follow through strength. $IOT had that look into week 16. Monday morning the stock opened strong and made a momentum move to the upside, holding that strength for the majority of the week. Trading higher by +9.70% from Mondays open into Fridays close. This helped close the AoT portfolio out at year to date highs at +24.97%!!!
Week 17 Top Pick: $AMD
$AMD: (long setup) has been in a consistent uptrend since the beginning of 2023. Pulled back in a controlled manner to ride along the 50 day MA as it builds a neat bullish consolidation. A nice risk to reward entry against the 50 day MA!
Targets: $100 to $105
$AMD started the week quite weak following the market lower. $MSFT, $AMZN, $INTC, $GOOGL all reported earnings throughout the week giving the market strength and a big thrust higher Thursday through Friday. This strength helped $AMD recover from weekly lows and post a positive gain for the week! Leading the AoT Top Pick of the Week strategy even higher! +26.40% YTD!!!
Week 18 Top Pick: $NVDA
$NVDA: (long setup) a very constructive post-PEG consolidation and riding along the 20 day MA. Look for more upside this week after a 5 to 6 weeks consolidation.
Targets: $300
$NVDA started the week off strong. $AMD earnings, FOMC and finally $AAPL earnings on Thursday all played a role in the dynamics of the market this week. Friday strength crept in after a strong earnings report out of $AAPL the night before. The market rallied higher and $NVDA lead the day with relative strength closing the day roughly 4% higher! $NVDA helped add another +3.02% gain to the AoT Top Pick Portfolio for the week. Now +29.42% YTD!!!
Week 19 Top Pick: $SOXL
$SOXL: (long setup) Pulled back recently to support and made a successful 2b reversal.
Targets: $18
$SOXL started the week off strong, then $AMD and $NVDA began to fade and showed signs of relative weakness on the week. My idea for this trade was potential follow through strength from $AMD and $NVDA but we didn't quite get that here. None the less $SOXL only pulled back -3.04% from the opening weekly price into the closing price. So we didn't lose much ground! The AoT Top Pick Portfolio is now +26.38% YTD!!!
Week 20 Top Pick: $NVDA
$NVDA: (long setup) Holding up extremely well here as Semis sector pulled back last couple weeks. Riding along the 20 day MA with healthy volume patterns.
Targets: $300
$NVDA started the week off strong and continued to show relative strength all the way into Thursdays close. This week was ALL ABOUT the semi sector! $NVDA rallied +9.66% higher on the week pushing the AoT Top Pick of the Week Portfolio into new YTD highs! Closing the week out at +36.04% YTD!!!
Week 21 Top Pick: $DKNG
$DKNG: (long setup) After a nice PEG recently, $DKNG is now making a good looking bounce back off the 20 day MA.
Targets: $30
$DKNG started the week off strong with a technical momentum breakout move on the Monday morning to start the week off strong. Unfortunately this was a false breakout and the stock slowly traded down each day on the week there after. $DKNG traded down -6.29% on the week.
Week 22 Top Pick: $CVNA
$CVNA: (long setup) A very constructive post-PEG run up to test the 20 day MA. Look for a breakout this week! To put the cherry on top, it has over 50% short interest! Mind blowing short interest!
Targets: $15 - $16
$CVNA started the week off strong! It made an inside down day Wednesday but continued with massive volume (50m+ shares traded) and strength Thursday, which could have been early signs of short covering! This week was ALL ABOUT $CVNA!
Making it the highest performing weekly AoT Top Pick YTD!!!!
$CVNA rallied +26.59% higher on the week pushing the AoT Top Pick of the Week Portfolio into new YTD highs! Closing the week out at +56.34% YTD!!!
Week 23 Top Pick: $AFRM
$AFRM: (long setup) a very constructive post-PEG consolidation pattern. Look for a breakout this week. And to put the cherry on top, it has over 20% short interest!
Targets: $20
$AFRM started the week off strong! A large gap up open that was sold Wednesday was quickly bought back up again Thursday. Friday made another gap up open into new highs for the week but this was sold down too. Despite all of the back and forth $AFRM still managed to grind out a +9.92% gain, pushing the AoT Top Pick of the Week portfolio into a new YTD high, +66.26% YTD!!!
Week 24 Top Pick: $NVDA
$NVDA: (long setup) making a nice post-PEG mini bullish pennant consolidation pattern here. Beautiful setup here.
Targets: $430 - $450
$NVDA started the week off strong and continued the strength through out the week into Fridays close. $NVDA rallied +8.91% higher on the week pushing the AoT Top Pick of the Week Portfolio into new YTD highs! Closing the week out at +75.17% YTD!!!
Week 25 Top Pick: $GOOGL
$GOOGL: (long setup) making a small bullish flag consolidation pattern here. Beautiful setup here.
Targets: $150
This weeks strategy was picking a stock with a little less beta attached to it as I came into this week thinking the market might begin to get a little choppier after it's recent rally. $GOOGL doesn't usually make drastic daily price swings so I thought this would be a good choice! $GOOGL started the week off muted and traded down through Wednesday. It staged a recovery through Thursday, closing down slightly on Friday. $GOOGL only lost -0.48% on the week keeping the AoT Top Pick of the Week Portfolio strong!
Week 26 Top Pick: $MSFT
$MSFT: (long setup) making a nice INSIDE DAY candle on Friday pattern after testing, holding the 20 day MA. Beautiful setup here.
Targets: $350 to $370
I followed my thinking from last week and decided to go with a large market cap name with smaller daily price swings. $MSFT was the Top Pick for week 26! Monday $MSFT opened near the high of the day and sold down with the rest of the market into the close. Tuesday created a strong inside day candle which ended up setting this stock up strong for the rest of the week. Wednesday and Thursday $MSFT gained some ground but it was the gap up open that held on Friday that really helped the Top Pick of the Week along!
$MSFT gained 2.04% on the week pushing the Art of Trading Top Pick of the Week portfolio into a new YTD high. +76.73%!
Week 27 Top Pick: $MRVL
$MRVL: (long setup) making a nice INSIDE DAY candle on Friday pattern after testing, holding the 20 day MA. Beautiful setup here.
Targets: $70 to $75
Short holidays weeks in the market are usually met with poor liquidity and choppy trading. Monday $MRVL opened the day strong maintaining that strength all the way into the close.
Wednesday was met with weakness which followed through into Thursday. Friday the stock made a bit of a recovery and ended up closing the day out strong even though the market lost strength mid day.
$MRVL traded down -1.92% on the week. The Art of Trading Top Pick of the Week portfolio now sits at a strong 74.81% YTD.
Week 28 Top Pick: $DKNG
$DKNG: (long setup) very high relative strength especially after last week's market pullback. Attempting to make new highs as NASDAQ pulled back is a good sign of strong demand for this stock.
Targets: $30 to $35
$DKNG opened on a strong opening bid Monday morning and followed through into Thursday. This was a week of strong momentum breakout trades and $DKNG was not left behind! The multiple weeks of coiling set this trade up for a strong breakout!
$DKNG traded up 13.70% on the week. The Art of Trading Top Pick of the Week portfolio now sits at a new year to day high! +88.51% !
Week 29 Top Pick: $CCL
$CCL: (long setup) making a nice Holy Grail pattern after testing, holding the 20 day MA (post-PEG). Nice setup here.
Targets: $20
$CCL opened on a strong opening bid Monday morning and followed through into Wednesday. Thursday the stock traded down with the market but showed relative strength to close the day out on Friday.
$CCL traded up 3.05% on the week. The Art of Trading Top Pick of the Week portfolio now sits at a new year to date high! +91.56%!
Week 30 Top Pick: $RDFN
$RDFN: (long setup) making a nice Holy Grail pattern after testing, holding the 20 day MA (post-PEG). Nice setup here.
Targets: $17 to $18
$RDFN was technically the same setup as last weeks top pick, $CCL. $RDFN traded strong Monday but was met with volatility for the remainder of the week. If was a difficult week for swing trades this week. Thursdays volatility didn't help with that.
$RDFN traded down -3.01% on the week. The Art of Trading Top Pick of the Week portfolio now sits at a strong 88.55% YTD.
Week 31 Top Pick: $MARA
$MARA: (long setup) forming a construction pullback here. Bull flagging nicely here as it tests the 20 day MA. Beautiful setup here.
Targets: $20
$MARA opened strong with the market Monday morning. Throughout the week it tried trading in a constructive sideways manner but wasn't able to shake the relative weakness of the overall market. Friday $MARA traded down -4.41% on the day creating the majority of the loss for the week on that day.
$MARA traded down -6.88% on the week. The Art of Trading Top Pick of the Week portfolio now sits at a strong 81.67% YTD.
Week 32 Top Pick: $ORCL
*** NOTE for Week 32:
I sent a quick email to Art of Trading members for Week 32. I opted to wait to see how Monday August 7th performed before sending out a new Stocks to Watchlist for the week. The Stocks to watchlist and Top Pick of the week would be active the following day August 8th!
Here was the note explaining my thoughts. "Decided to make this one of the rare times when a STOCKS TO WATCH list will not be sent prior to Monday's open. This has happened only two other times in the past. I'm seeing some ideas for next week but I think in order to play it cautiously, it would be wiser to wait and see how Monday's market closes first.
Thank you!"
$ORCL: (long setup) Holding up really well at the 20 day MA area and showing good relative strength. Coiling/wedging so nicely here.
Targets: $130
$ORCL Held nicely through Tuesday. Throughout the week it tried trading in a constructive sideways manner but wasn't able to shake the relative weakness of the overall market.
$ORCL traded down -1.72% on the week starting Tuesday. The Art of Trading Top Pick of the Week portfolio now sits at a strong +79.95% YTD.
Week 33 Top Pick: $NVDA
*** NOTE for Week 33:
Much like the previous week I thought it would be best to take a wait and see approach with the Stocks to Watchlist since the market has been on the more volatile and weaker side the past few weeks. $NVDA was the Top Pick for Tuesday August 15th open!
Here was the note explaining my thoughts. "Just like last week, decided that it would be wiser to hold off on sending out a STOCKS TO WATCH list prior to Monday's open. Will send it out right after Monday's close instead. I'm seeing some decent ideas in the Energy sector for the upcoming week but I think in order to play it cautiously, it would be wiser to wait and see how Monday's market closes first.
Thank you!"
$NVDA: (long setup) pulled back smartly for the last 4 to 5 weeks and made a bullish engulfing reversal today on big volume. A high probability technical pattern.
A nice swing trade setup here.
Targets: $470 to $480
$NVDA was given a nice upgrade early Monday morning. Playing off of Mondays momentum I thought this would be a strong setup for a less then ideal market swing trading market. Tuesday $NVDA was able to hold the day above Mondays highs but suffered from market weakness for the remainder of the week. Friday the stock was able to stage a strong reversal and close above Thursdays lows. $NVDA reports earning next week on the 23rd. Otherwise this would be an ideal candidate for the upcoming week.
$NVDA traded down -2.83% on the week starting Tuesday. The Art of Trading Top Pick of the Week portfolio now sits at a strong +77.12% YTD.
Week 34 Top Pick: $ARKK
$ARKK: (long setup) made a long and persistent pullback for 3 to 4 weeks and now tagging the 200 day MA. Good looking setup from a risk to reward entry perspective for a bounce play as NYMO/NAMO went into oversold territory last week.
Targets: $45
$ARKK opened on a strong opening bid Monday morning and followed through into Wednesday. Thursday the stock traded down with the market but showed relative strength to close the day out on Friday.
$ARKK traded up 0.91% on the week. The Art of Trading Top Pick of the Week portfolio now sits at +78.03% YTD!
Week 35 Top Pick: $AEHR
$AEHR: (long setup) Pulled back nicely to fill the last earnings gap and now hovering near the 100 day MA as it finds a bottom here.
Targets: $50
$AEHR opened on a strong opening bid Monday morning and followed through the entire week, closing with relative strength against the market for the majority of the trading week!
$AEHR traded up 16.96% on the week making it the second biggest performing weekly Top Pick of 2023. The Art of Trading Top Pick of the Week portfolio now sits at a new year to date high! +94.99%!
Week 36 Top Pick: $AMZN
$AMZN: (long setup) a very constructive post-PEG pullback emerging here. Look for a pop higher out of the recent consolidation.
Targets: $150
$AMZN opened weak Tuesday morning. It followed the market down Wednesday but was able to find some relative strength against the market allowing it to close slightly up on the week. Nasdaq closed down over -1% on the week in comparison.
$AMZN traded near flat on the week squeezing in a +0.36% gain. The Art of Trading Top Pick of the Week portfolio now sits at a new year to date high! +95.35%!
Week 37 Top Pick: $AKAM
$AKAM: (long setup) a very constructive post-PEG consolidation here. Look for a pop higher out this week over $106 area.
Targets: $115 to $120
$AKAM opened strong Monday morning but faded throughout the day. Breakout setups often require the market to act constructive and since this weeks market was nothing more then a range that chopped up and down each day $AKAM just didn't find the strength for a follow through move.
$AKAM traded a slight loss on the week, -1.29% . The Art of Trading Top Pick of the Week portfolio now sits at +94.06%!
Week 38 Top Pick: $TZA
*** NOTE for Week 38:
Due to the weak close on the previous Friday I decided it would make more sense to hold off on the stocks to watchlist for the Monday open and instead send it for the Tuesday open after the market established a clearer picture.
I emailed AoT members explaining my thoughts.
"Good morning folks,
Decided to make this one of the rare times when a STOCKS TO WATCH list will not be sent prior to Monday's open. I'm seeing some ideas for this week but I think in order to play it cautiously, it would be wiser to wait and see how Monday's market closes first.
Thank you!
$TZA: (long setup) this is the 3x Bearish ETF for $IWM. Holding up really well here and showing good relative strength recently. Looking for a breakout thru that $29 area to continue the momentum higher.
Targets: $32 to $33
$TZA opened strong Tuesday and continued to find strength through Wednesday. The FOMC reaction gave this trade an excellent boost. I decided it would be best to take advantage of this strength and book the gain on Thursday afternoon. I let AoT members know through email and on the private Art of Trading twitter feed!
I posted this:
$TZA traded up 7.35% from Tuesdays open into mid day Thursday! The Art of Trading Top Pick of the Week portfolio now sits at a new year to date high! +101.41%!
Stay tuned for more valuable setups next week!
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