AOT TOP PICKS WEEKLY UPDATE 2023
Updated: 3 days ago
Hi folks,
Each weekend I send AoT private members a new "Stocks to Watchlist" for the upcoming week. These watchlists contain a "Top Pick of the Week". I'll update this post at the end of each week "live" tracking these picks publicly (It will lag 1 week)
In 2022 I developed a very simple strategy for the "Top Pick of the Week". This strategy returned +115.74% for 2022!!! Basically it involves buying the "Top Pick of the Week" on the opening tic Monday morning and selling the closing tic Friday afternoon. It takes very little effort and very little capital. The model portfolio uses $10k for this idea.
This is how the strategy worked compared to the market in 2022:
AoT Top Pick returned: +115.74%
SPY returned: -18.62%
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Below are the live stats (1 week lag) for 2023! Be sure to check this post each Sunday evening for a new update for the previous week!
***A small modification to the strategy might be warranted in the case of overbought and oversold levels in the market. Occasionally the market will reach these conditions and it may make sense to hold off on the "Top Pick" when these conditions are met. The chances of the market making a sharp countertrend move during these times is heighted. These conditions are rarely met so it doesn't change the overall strategy in a major way. See the Note* on week 3 for more insight into this! ***
2023 Live Stats:
*Based on a $10k position
Percent Gain after Week 22: + 56.34%
Profit / Loss after Week 22: + $5634.00
AoT Top Pick YTD vs SPY YTD return CHART *updated every 8 weeks
Week 1 Top Pick: $AEHR
(Long setup) This Semiconductor stock has been a relative strength leader throughout 2022. Pulling back to test 100 day MA. Look for a rally phase.
*Please note $AEHR was expected to post earnings last week. AoT members were given a 2nd option "$MOMO" if they didn't want ER risk! $MOMO as the secondary pick went on to return +4.80% or +$480.00 for the week!
Week 2 Top Pick: $SMCI
(long setup) This stock has been a relative strength leader throughout 2022. Pulling back to test 50 day MA. Look for a rally phase.
Targets: $95 to $100
$SMCI started off very strong for the week making a technical breakout. Tuesday morning $SMCI was stuck with a bearish hit piece published by Spruce Point Capital. The stock traded down on the article but recovered decently into weekend! Its unfortunate but sometimes these things happen!
Week 3 Top Pick: $PDSB
$PDSB: (long setup) This biotech stock has been a relative strength leader. Pulling back to test 20 day MA and forming a wedge pattern. Look for a big reversal/bounce this week.
Targets: $13 to $14
Coming into week 3 the market was performing quite well with a multi-day rally pushing $NYMO and $NAMO into overbought condition. I suspected the market might pullback but since I wasn't looking for a full blown bearish attack but more of a choppy/sideways to slightly down move for indices, I figured a biotech stock would more likely outperform since biotechs tend to outperform during choppy or slightly red Market periods. That's why I opted for $PDSB for this week. I didn't want to post short setups since I wasn't suspecting the market to drop all week. Looking back on the week, that turned out mostly accurate but the AOT Top Pick didn't perform as expected.
Week 4 Top Pick: $AMD
$AMD: (long setup) a beautiful bottoming pattern that's retesting the breakout area. Semis are starting to look a more better recently and AMD is one of the sector's best.
Targets: $80 to $85
$AMD started the week quite strong and surprisingly held in after being downgraded Tuesday morning and then weaker than expected earnings from $INTC. $AMD really showed its strength in the market this week!
Week 5 Top Pick: $OKTA
$OKTA: (long setup) a bullish wedge pattern here after a recent PEG. Look for a potential R2G(Red open that goes Green).
Targets: $85 to $90
Coming into week 5 it was an event filled week with FOMC and earnings reports from $AMD, $AAPL, $AMZN, $GOOGL and many more. Despite the potential for the market to whipsaw up down on a week like this strong stocks held in relatively well. $OKTA produced a 4.69% return for week 5!
Week 6 Top Pick: $SARK
$SARK: (long setup) the risk to reward profile is starting to look quite appealing here for a multi-day bounce in the inverse-$ARKK ETF.
Target: $45
After a very strong January and a quick run up in many of the top $ARKK holdings I was looking for a potential pullback / resting phase in some of these names this week. This was my main reason behind making $SARK the top pick for week 6. After a strong start to the week strength faded into weakness benefiting $SARK! $SARK produced a 7.39% return for week 6!
Week 7 Top Pick: $YPF
$YPF: (long setup) a bullish pennant consolidation pattern here after a pullback to the 20 day MA. Look for more relative strength leadership in this name in the next few days.
Target: $13 to $14
I expected some volatility this week so I went with a name with a little less beta attached to it. This setup had a nicely drawn out bullish pennant technical pattern that was set to break out. Technically it did break out Thursday with a high of $12.59 at one point but weakness hit the market into weeks end. This setup closed down the week -2.89% from the opening price Monday. From a swing trading point of view this setup is still technically valid.
Week 8 Top Pick: $RVNC
$RVNC: (long setup) relative strength leader from biotech sector. Pulled back to test 20 day MA. First 20 day MA test since the big gap up on January 9th. Held up last week as market fell.
Target: $36 to $38
Much the same as last week I expected some volatility this week so I went with a name with a little less beta attached to it. This setup had a nice controlled pullback from recent highs and was testing the 20 day MA trendline for the first time since it gapped up on January 9th.
This past week it continued to follow the 20 day MA trend in a bullish manner and returned +2.46% for the week while the market fell!
Next week I'm seeing many low risk, high reward entry points! Stay tuned!
Week 9 Top Pick: $META
$META: (long setup) has been pulling back nicely after recent PEG. Looking for a potential reversal/bounce this week.
Target: $200
$META made a very nice controlled pullback into the 20 MA and created a nice falling wedge pattern after a strong Power Earnings Gap. After last weeks pullback in the market I was looking for low risk, high reward trade setups and $META fit that profile!
$META returned +7.78% on the week!
Week 10 Top Pick: $TSLA
$TSLA: (long setup) first pullback/consolidation to the 20 day MA after the recent PEG. Look for continued strength/rotation this week.
Target: $220 - $230
$TSLA The idea behind the $TSLA trade was much the same as the previous weeks $META trade. Unfortunately $TSLA along with the market was quite weak for the majority of the week. Thursday amplifying the move down! Unfortunately sometimes this happens with a systematic approach.
Week 11 Top Pick: $AMD
$AMD: (long setup) a bullish consolidation recently here above the 20 day MA in a stock that's been an excellent relative strength leader in the Semis sector.
Target: $100
Coming into week 11 I opted to wait for the market to show a clearer path forward. The "Top Pick of the Week" was sent to AoT members on Tuesday evening instead of the usual Sunday evening "Stocks to Watchlist" for this reason. Given how last week ended on weakness I thought this was an important step for success stepping into this week!
On Wednesday morning $AMD opened at $86.74, as per the strategy this was the ideal entry. Finishing the week off strong at $97.84 with a 12.80% gain!!! Erasing the loss from last week and allowing the "Top Pick of the Week" to continue to outperform $SPY YTD!
Week 12 Top Pick: $AGI
$AGI: (long setup) a big volume bullish breakout on Friday to launch it near new 52 week highs for this gold sector stock. Rotation into gold as banking sector anxiety causes a flight to safety.
Target: $13 - $14
After last weeks very successful "Top Pick" idea my focus this week was to retain those gains and pick a strong name in a leading sector with a lot less beta attached to it. $AGI was trading near 52 week highs on strong momentum from the previous week. I thought this would be a strong idea in a market with a lot of uncertainty attached to it. Add the FOMC into the mix this week and stronger volatility should have been expected.
$AGI squeezed out a +3% gain on the week, pushing the "Top Pick of the Week" portfolio higher for the year. Now sitting at +17.71% gains YTD!
Week 13 Top Pick: $AXON
$AXON: (long setup) made a nice PEG candle recently. Pulling back to test 20 day MA after a strong run up and made an INSIDE DAY candle on Friday.
Target: $230
$AXON was an A+ setup coming into week 13. As good as the technical setup was this stock tested traders patience all through the week until it finally made its technical move on the last day, Friday!
Its important to keep in mind that this can happen from time to time and the best way to get through that is responsible position sizing. Keeping consistent sizing is key and this is exactly how the "Top Pick of the Week" systematic strategy works!
$AXON returned +2.79% on the week pushing the AoT Top Pick of the week strategy +20.50% YTD for 2023!
Week 14 Top Pick: $TSLA
$TSLA: (long setup) Pulled back to test 20 day MA after a strong run up and after repeated attempts to break below, it couldn't do it, a failed short setup often times make a good long setup.
Target: $225 - $230
The idea behind the $TSLA trade was a potential continuation breakout move off of the strong Friday close from the previous week. The gap down open Monday morning set the risk vs reward up quite nicely. Unfortunately $TSLA was quite weak for the majority of the week. It didn't help that the market was quite erratic and choppy on the short holiday week. Better setups to come in the future!
Week 15 Top Pick: $ONON
$ONON: (long setup) a very constructive post-PEG consolidation(bullish pennant) and a reversal took place today. Look for more upside this week as institutional interest in the stock grows.
Target: $35 - $40
Coming into week 15 I opted to wait for the market to show a clearer path forward. The "Top Pick of the Week" was sent to AoT members on Monday evening instead of the usual Sunday evening "Stocks to Watchlist" for this reason. Given how last week was quite choppy I thought it was best to see how the market acted Monday rather then just jump right in first thing Monday morning.
On Tuesday morning $ONON opened at $30.05, as per the strategy this was the ideal entry. Finishing the week off strong at $30.71 with a 2.20% gain!
Week 16 Top Pick: $IOT
$IOT: (long setup) a very constructive post-PEG consolidation and riding along the 20 day MA. Look for more upside this week.
Target: $25
Going into week 16 I was focusing on momentum breakout names that have shown leading characteristics in these choppy market conditions. Potential ideas that could show follow through strength. $IOT had that look into week 16. Monday morning the stock opened strong and made a momentum move to the upside, holding that strength for the majority of the week. Trading higher by +9.70% from Mondays open into Fridays close. This helped close the AoT portfolio out at year to date highs at +24.97%!!!
Week 17 Top Pick: $AMD
$AMD: (long setup) has been in a consistent uptrend since the beginning of 2023. Pulled back in a controlled manner to ride along the 50 day MA as it builds a neat bullish consolidation. A nice risk to reward entry against the 50 day MA!
Targets: $100 to $105
$AMD started the week quite weak following the market lower. $MSFT, $AMZN, $INTC, $GOOGL all reported earnings throughout the week giving the market strength and a big thrust higher Thursday through Friday. This strength helped $AMD recover from weekly lows and post a positive gain for the week! Leading the AoT Top Pick of the Week strategy even higher! +26.40% YTD!!!
Week 18 Top Pick: $NVDA
$NVDA: (long setup) a very constructive post-PEG consolidation and riding along the 20 day MA. Look for more upside this week after a 5 to 6 weeks consolidation.
Targets: $300
$NVDA started the week off strong. $AMD earnings, FOMC and finally $AAPL earnings on Thursday all played a role in the dynamics of the market this week. Friday strength crept in after a strong earnings report out of $AAPL the night before. The market rallied higher and $NVDA lead the day with relative strength closing the day roughly 4% higher! $NVDA helped add another +3.02% gain to the AoT Top Pick Portfolio for the week. Now +29.42% YTD!!!
Week 19 Top Pick: $SOXL
$SOXL: (long setup) Pulled back recently to support and made a successful 2b reversal.
Targets: $18
$SOXL started the week off strong, then $AMD and $NVDA began to fade and showed signs of relative weakness on the week. My idea for this trade was potential follow through strength from $AMD and $NVDA but we didn't quite get that here. None the less $SOXL only pulled back -3.04% from the opening weekly price into the closing price. So we didn't lose much ground! The AoT Top Pick Portfolio is now +26.38% YTD!!!
Week 20 Top Pick: $NVDA
$NVDA: (long setup) Holding up extremely well here as Semis sector pulled back last couple weeks. Riding along the 20 day MA with healthy volume patterns.
Targets: $300
$NVDA started the week off strong and continued to show relative strength all the way into Thursdays close. This week was ALL ABOUT the semi sector! $NVDA rallied +9.66% higher on the week pushing the AoT Top Pick of the Week Portfolio into new YTD highs! Closing the week out at +36.04% YTD!!!
Week 21 Top Pick: $DKNG
$DKNG: (long setup) After a nice PEG recently, $DKNG is now making a good looking bounce back off the 20 day MA.
Targets: $30
$DKNG started the week off strong with a technical momentum breakout move on the Monday morning to start the week off strong. Unfortunately this was a false breakout and the stock slowly traded down each day on the week there after. $DKNG traded down -6.29% on the week.
Week 22 Top Pick: $CVNA
$CVNA: (long setup) A very constructive post-PEG run up to test the 20 day MA. Look for a breakout this week! To put the cherry on top, it has over 50% short interest! Mind blowing short interest!
Targets: $15 - $16
$CVNA started the week off strong! It made an inside down day Wednesday but continued with massive volume (50m+ shares traded) and strength Thursday, which could have been early signs of short covering! This week was ALL ABOUT $CVNA!
Making it the highest performing weekly AoT Top Pick YTD!!!!
$CVNA rallied +26.59% higher on the week pushing the AoT Top Pick of the Week Portfolio into new YTD highs! Closing the week out at +56.34% YTD!!!
Stay tuned for more valuable setups next week!
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