State of the Market - September 2026
Hi Folks!
We're back with another State of the Market post. In these posts I like to give a general overview with what I'm seeing in the market, how I'm trading it and what to look for as it develops as well as some trading ideas going forward!
Here is a handy breakdown of the topics covered in the blog post ahead!
Indices action, observations and thoughts -
Looking back on this year April through to the end of May was undoubtedly the strongest continuous rally the market had witnessed in quite some time with nearly 9 continuous weeks up. This strength fueled massive momentum and short terms gains through the memory and AI themed sectors. Much of which could be considered a "lock out" type rally where price continued to run. You were basically in it, or you weren't.
Now nearly 14 weeks later the market has basically consolidated sideways from that point forward. No new highs, a dramatic low during the last week of July into a nice "V" bottom rally that fizzled out 2 weeks later. From there consolidation has tightened up, with tighter intra-day action, many gap up and gap down market opens only to be met with the opposing action intra-day.
Switching up the timeframe and zooming out to look at the bigger picture on the weekly timeframe we can start to see some constructive action inside this period of long drawn out consolidation.
From my observations on how this week closed overall All the major US indices closed red on the week with the $IWM (small caps index/ETF) being the relative weakness leader however it is testing its 20 Week Moving Average as we speak.
Other than that, Nasdaq, SPX and DIA are all trading in a choppy manner for several weeks now ad the market continues to absorb and price in the daily barrage of news events. The action is starting to coil, in other words getting tighter and tighter. A decisive move(breakout) should be imminent, likely before September is out.
$NYMO and $NAMO Conditions -
Another notable observation from last weeks trading was $NYMO and $NAMO conditions.
$NYMO most oversold its been since March! $NAMO approaching oversold(still not quite there yet technically). However, keep in mind, it's at levels here that have produced big multi-day rallies in 2026.
A step by step on How to Use $NYMO and $NAMO here
$NYMO Chart
$NAMO Chart
Gap down opens with $NYMO and $NAMO approaching oversold levels can provide strong entries for multiday swing trading setups!
What's been working? What hasn't?
Since the market has been in a consolidation phase for the past 3+ months it can be beneficial to observe the stand out sectors and companies in the market. If the market begins to move outside of the consolidation zone and begins to run higher these outliers will have a tendency to continue to outperform.
Using Finviz Maps screener these companies and sectors is easily found!
Semi's have been a mixed bag. $NVDA and $AMD have been leading the pack. The ever so popular household mega cappers have performed decently as well, $AAPL, $MSFT, $META, $AMZN. $GOOGL, $NFLX and $TSLA lagging.
Under "Computer Hardware" $ANET and $DELL continue to strongly outperform.
$PLTR, $PANW and $CRWD strong.
Big moves for $V and $MA under "credit services relatively speaking. Banks making strong moves too, $JPM, $BAC and $BNY leading the way.
Over all if you spend the time to look at the "Big Picture" under the surface the market looks quite healthy over the past 3 months even though on paper it appears to have just moved sideways!
Setups to Watch in the Week ahead!
Breakout - relative strength play:
$AMD After establishing a strong higher low over the past few weeks $AMD continues to push off that higher low and make progress higher. Watch for a breakout rally and maybe another attempt a testing the all time high made earlier this year!
"Bottom" fishing, reversal play:
$APP has spent the last 4 weeks stuck inside a range. After trading above $600 during the first week of June this name has cut itself in half sitting near the $324 level price point as of Fridays close. Look for this name to trade back above $335 and potentially test the backside of prior support around $375
Break out and momentum play:
$ANET A strong bullish flag technical setup built over the past 5 weeks is setting this one out for a potential break out and momentum move higher! Watch this one closely!
Well folks I hope you found this post helpful! I'm sure some of this one way or another will help generate some great ideas on your screens over the next few weeks!
Cheers and happy trading!
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