State of the Market November 2025

Trader Stewie
Nov 9
4 min read

Hi Folks,

I'm back with another State of the Market post! These posts have been quite constructive in the past and I think now is a good time to cover another "State of the Market" for November 2025.

Last week $QQQ saw the largest multi-day pullback from a closing high to an intra-day low since the April low earlier this year. From the October 29th high to the intra-day low on Friday November 7th $QQQ pulled back 6.01%

I actually started watching for a potential pullback phase around October 30th. I sent out a series of tweets on my public TraderStewie X account. Here were my thoughts on how that may play out!

The market became slightly frothy from my point of view from the last strong run it made starting October 23rd, posting 5 consecutive days up ending on October 29th. October 30th marked the first day of the potential pullback phase where most indices at this time started showing some bearish RSI divergences.

On November 4th the market gapped down and closed on a low. This is when I started looking more closely into $NYMO and $NAMO indicators. They weren't in an oversold territory at this point but the market was starting to shape up in such a way that they needed to be put on radar. We've covered $NYMO and $NAMO a lot on the AoT Blog but if you're unfamiliar with one of my favorite "oversold" indicators you can read all about that here: Utilizing $NYMO and $NAMO

The next day the market showed some signs of life closing much stronger then it opened but as we know markets never make things "obvious" or "easy". On Thursday November 6th the market moved steadily lower the entire day. By day end the $QQQ closed well below the 20 exponential moving average and was moving at an accelerated pace towards the 50 Day moving average by the end of the day.

Friday the market gapped down and made a strong move lower below the 50 Day moving average by noon hour.

As the market trekked on later into the afternoon things started to look up as indices staged strong recoveries back above the 50 Day moving average and in some cases from red back into green! This was a great start to a potential bounce back phase!

As noted earlier in the post last week $QQQ saw the largest multi-day pullback from a closing high to an intra-day low since the April low earlier this year. From the October 29th high to the intra-day low on Friday November 7th $QQQ pulled back 6.01% .

Lets examine other significant pullbacks from the April correction starting from May into the current date.

A list of notable pullbacks before last week were

October 10th: -2.44%
August 13th - 20th: -4.19%
July 31st - August 1st: -3.99%

The pullback last week from the $QQQ ATH into the intra-day low on Friday also successfully tested, lost and regained the 50 Day moving average resulting in a "hammer candle" close by day end. Since May $QQQ only ever tested the 50 Day moving average one other time and that was on September 2nd. That low marked the beginning of a run that went on for a 6 week period which ended on the October 10th "pullback" noted above.

What does this look like on a $QQQ daily chart and what can we learn from it?

Every notable pullback from May of this year was swiftly bought. Often the market recovered into a new all time high within a 10 day trading period from the minor pullbacks. The pullback in August saw a longer consolidating phase before resolving into a new all time high.

What could this mean going forward?

If volatility ramps up in the near term the market could be in for a choppier phase where it makes quick 2 - 3 day bounces but falls back into a range, taking a longer period of time to establish a new high or consolidating for a longer period of time. It requires traders to be a little more tactical in their approach and may not necessarily reward dip buying every single time but it could reward a short term trading mindset where 2 or 3 days trades reward traders consistently.

If you've thought about getting some extra umph out of the market, idea generation or even just some general guidance this is what I can help with through the Art of Trading! I'm sure we're going to see some fantastic trading opportunities in the near future.

What can I look out for next week?

While I was writing this blog post a government shutdown update came through and it appears that the funding bill has been passed. Reopening the U.S. government. This will surely be a bullish take for the market and a 2 - 3 rally phase from Fridays low has a higher chance of playing out from here with this positive headline.