State of the Market March 2026

Hi Folks,

I'm back with another State of the Market post! These posts have been quite constructive in the past and I think now is a good time to cover another "State of the Market" for March 2026.

We'll cover some general market thoughts, how AoT has been trading this market and a Top Pick of the Week update to finish the post off!

Lets get into the review!

So far 2026 has marked a very sideways and technically volatile market to start the year. Swing trading opportunities have been few but short term day trading and bounce type trades have popped up here and there. Trading less, entering and exiting short terms trades aggressively and netting PnL when its been made available has been the primary focus to start the year.

$SPY has showcased this viewpoint quite well since the middle of December 2025 into the current day. A sideways trading channel between $670 - $675 into $692 - $697 has been strongly established. The market has found support at $670 and traded back into $690 for a total of 6 cycles over that timeframe.

Since market conditions haven't been all that constructive in terms of strength building the 20 EMA is starting to cross below the 50 SMA in a bearish manner. This is a significant development if you take into consideration that the 20 EMA has been above the 50 SMA since may of 2025 and hasn't crossed back through since.

This potentially signals that the next pivot for the market could be lower. Which isn't necessarily a bad thing, traders just need to be nimble, patient, and plan around such a scenario.

I like to start with $NYMO and $NAMO to help signal short term oversold readings. We haven't had an extreme reading in the $NYMO and $NAMO for quite sometime and generally speaking you get 2 - 3 good extreme readings out of $NYMO and $NAMO a year that consistently produce good bounce / bottoming signals.

I've touched on the $NYMO and $NAMO reading subject briefly in the AoT private feed over the past week. Going forward $NYMO and $NAMO will be a focus if the market pivots lower, short term.

As you can see $NYMO and $NAMO are still awhile away from an extreme short term reading but that's not to say we shouldn't start putting eyes on this now! To read more on the mechanics behind $NYMO and $NAMO follow this step-by-step educational blog post here:

Sometimes its important to remember that the best trades often come after long periods of patience. Instead of trying to trade every wiggle in the market, stalking and waiting for the best trades will often produce much stronger results. From a swing trading perspective we've been practicing patience in the AoT feed!

Now this isn't to say that we haven't taking trades here and there but for now the best trades have been intra-day scalp and bounce day trades. Here is a good example of one of those short term trading ideas here:

Here is the result of one of those trades in a very quick 35 minute period.

Volatility and sideways chop has also helped propel the AoT Top Pick of the Week higher to start the year off strong! We've been able to take advantage of the volatility by buying into weakness and selling into strength most weeks. So far YTD the Top Pick sits at +21.82%!

The Top Pick is updated at the end of each week and as always you can find the updates at this link here!

Moving forward we'll look for more opportunities to buy short term weakness and sell into strength. I think patience will go a long way in this trendless market where waiting for a swift potential pivot lower will unlock greater opportunity instead of trying to trade every wiggle and wobble.

I hope this State of the Market post for March 2026 puts some new ideas and thoughts into your process while you navigate this market with confidence going into Q2 2026!

Cheers and happy trading!