Biggest Trade of the Year on $MRVL Launches AOT Top Pick Strategy to +49.63% YTD!
- Trader Stewie
- 25 minutes ago
- 5 min read
Hi Folks!
We're back with another AoT educational blog post! In this post I'd like to give you an update on the very popular AoT "Top Pick of the Week" strategy and where we're at with that heading into the summer of 2026, basically a mid year update!
We'll follow this update up with a look at our latest "Top Pick" trade and how we went about managing that. The reason I want to focus on this trade in particular is because it marks one of the biggest Top Pick winners so far for 2026 at +19.61% and I think we can all learn a few things from that particular trade setup and trade. This will be a great place to cover that in detail!
Lets take a look at the Top Pick trades of 2026 so far:
As of today the AoT Top Pick strategy is now + 49.63% after week 22, 2026. Below are the list of trades that we've taken each week this year. Each trade has been quite straight forward. Simply buying the Monday opening price and selling the Friday closing price at the end of each week.
This year we've been a little more active in terms of position management though. Often selling half of the position if it quickly gains 5% - 7% early into the trade and then selling the second half later in the week. This way we're ensuring gains more consistently and at the same time managing risk by sizing down into strength.
We've had one loss exceeding are max 15% loss threshold. This was a situation where an overnight gap sent the position lower the following opening. It isn't uncommon to get at least one of these within the strategy each year. When that happens I usually tighten things up and realize gains quicker in the following weeks to help build back the outsized loss.
The results speak for themselves! After week 22, 2026 the Top Pick strategy sits at +49.63%
At the end of 2025 I analyzed the Top Pick performance from 2025 to see where improvements could be made for the strategy going into 2026. I actually do this at the end of each year for the strategy but sometimes it can be hard to identify key weaknesses during consistent runs of strength. 2025 was very up and down for the strategy with larger than usual drawdowns which made it easier to see where the weaknesses lie. The main finding was the occasional 2 week hold modification to the strategy from time to time was the main point of weakness and in almost all circumstances the larger than usual drawdowns were produced inside of this condition.
I finished that post with this statement -
"In 2026, we'll be going back to the basic rule set of the strategy to get the strategy back into where it was in 2022 through 2024. Reducing the chances of deeper drawdowns and slippage. Eliminating 2 week hold modifications could be a great first step. Obviously market environments, VIX, and a wide variety of suitable weekly trades plays a big part in the strategy, which sometimes can be completely out of the traders control."
you can read that post in its entirety here:
So how have those changes worked out for the first half of 2026?
The modification to the strategy has been fully implicated into the 2026 Top Pick of the Week Strategy. In addition any chance that I get to sell into strength I take. Usually looking for 5% - 7% short term gains to sell half of the position into, immediately. Obviously this has worked very well since volatility in the market has been quite consistent so far for 2026.
What have the results looked like in the past years?
2025Â Results:Â +10.19%
2024Â Results:Â +37.46%
2023Â Results:Â +131.86%
2022Â Results:Â +115.74%
So far for 2026 the strategy modifications have put us on track for another strong year. I'll continue to deploy the strategy in the same manner until we see some sort of change in the markets or signs that the strategy is starting to lag. Markets cycle so being open minded and dynamic, especially with a strategy like this is important!
Lets move on to the $MRVL trade review!
For the most part when I look for a "Top Pick" each week I look for a strong, trending them to slip into, obviously this isn't always the scenario but its the ideal one. So, I look through trending themes and I then look for the strongest technical charts. I don't necessarily want to "chase" a move I'm looking for strong stocks that have maybe consolidated over the past 3 - 5 days setting up for the next leg higher or a pullback into a major moving average during a strong run.
This week $MRVL fit the "Top Pick" criteria. It was simple. One of the strongest relative strength leaders in Semis sector. Hovered smartly sideways near all-time highs last week as the stock has been showing incredible Accumulation Volume patterns in recent weeks. Ever since the early March PEG candle, the stock has been going through what I consider a "paradigm shift" in its business prospects and future earnings/revenue projections which is why the stock has been on an intense/relentless run. This stock is a buy on any pullback/sideways consolidation.Â
The Top Pick plan is sent to AoT members in a similar format, with the setup, plan and targets. I keep it as simple as possible.
And with that we had the setup!
On Monday $MRVLÂ started the week off with a gap down open, which is the ideal entry scenario for the Top Pick of the Week most times.
From the gap down the stock rallied higher on day 1 allowing for the first half exit at $213.85 about 7.5% higher from the entry earlier in the morning. Tuesday $MRVL gapped up because of positive comments from the $NVDA CEO Jensen Huang. I took this gap up exit around the $262 level to solidify another strong week for the Top Pick of the Week. Closing it off at a new YTD high.
It was basically the perfect storm on day one. From the gap down open which allowed for a strong entry and a lower risk profile on the trade. I have found that the Top Pick performance often suffers from gap up entry scenarios, so as long as the chart is technically strong the gap down entry scenario is usually the best. The gap down entry scenario also allows for a Red to Green momentum scenario to take place on day 1. Where the stock gaps down, goes green and then rallies higher, fast. This is exactly what happened with $MRVL here. Allowing for the first half of the trade to be sold at a 7.5% gain on day one. Day 2 was basically "luck" with the Jensen Huang $MRVL mention which gapped the stock significantly higher on Tuesday allowing the $262 exit early in the day. In a short term swing trading scenario a trader may have taken a 1/4 size position off into the gap up and held a 1/4 remaining but with the Top Pick strategy I just make 1 and 2 part exits. Nothing overly complicated.
Here is some valuable member feedback from this trade. This type of feedback is what drives me to be the very best that I can be and is what keeps me so passionate about teaching other aspiring traders everything that I've learned after almost 3 decades in this business!
Here's some additional feedback from another trade we were involved in earlier this week
Its setups and technical trade strategies like these that have pushed the AoT Top Pick into a new YTD high over and over again this year. This market environment has proven itself to be very strong for such a scenario and I look forward to seeking out new Top Pick ideas each week because of it!
I hope this latest blog post has been helpful.
As always Cheers and happy trading!
